How we are responding to the Coronavirus

As I write this (Monday, March 2nd) there have been 13 cases of coronavirus diagnosed in the Seattle area (with the common belief there are far more out there). Two individuals have died and others remain in the ICU. My wife and I have three young children, and all the grandparents live far away. We have been watching the news carefully and began preparations early last week.

This is just a short note to explain what we are doing that I can share with others — NOT a recommendation on what you should do. Everyone needs to make their own choices based on their personal circumstances.

What we think we know:

• The virus spreads very quickly and easily (far more easily than the flu)
• The latency period can be very long (2–20 days) and people are contagious during the latency period
• Many people seem to get it and have no symptoms at all
• …But the fatality rate is high. Somewhere between 0.4% and 4.0% (which makes is 4–40x more dangerous than the flu) — but likely closer to the lower end of that range
• Even if you don’t die, the symptoms can be very serious. Infected people can end up on ventilators of the ICU even if they don’t die
• The virus seems to target older people. Young people under 10 years old may not be affected at all, but older people 70+ may have fatality rates north of 10%
• There are working on a vaccine, but best case scenario we don’t have it until ~January 2021
• They expect the virus will act like flu, in that it will reduce in both spread and virulence over the summer, but then come back strong in the late fall
• There are a ton of unknowns at this point, but we are working under the current hypothesis that this virus will spread widely around the world (there is no place to hide), that there is a high likely be infected unless we go into total social isolation — and we would need to stay in isolation until at least January 2021

Based on the above we think we should try our best to avoid getting the virus, but we are not going to go into “lockdown” — at least not now — for a few reasons:

1. The kids seem relatively safe from the virus
2. It is likely the BIG spread will happen in the fall — October-February when the bug comes alive again after the summer, but before any vaccine is available. If we REALLY wanted to avoid it, we would need to lock down for a LONG time and we aren’t ready to do that
3. If we are going to get the virus at some point, getting it NOW might be better than getting it later, before the health system is taxed. This doesn’t mean we are going to go an infect ourselves, but it means if we are willing to lock down ONCE, it is best to do that when the system is at or over capacity and the chance of infection is much higher

So, here is what we have done:

• We are monitoring the new data as it comes in
• We have picked up ~6 weeks worth of supplies — food, medicine, toilet paper, diapers, etc in case we decide to isolate for some period of time

And here is what we are planning to do:

• We are continuing to travel domestically, including to conferences (I have a few speaking events coming up in the next few weeks)
• We are stopping travel to countries that have been highly infected — on the off chance that the US . blocks re-entry
• We are not traveling to the developing world on thee off chance that we get sick while there (from infection we were not aware of prior to travel)
• We are going to be very careful around infections. We are washing hands after touching any public object and avoiding touching our faces if we have not just washed our hands. We are carrying sanitizer — less for our hands, and more to wash down surfaces we may touch (i.e., shopping carts)
• I am going to encourage my parents (who are over 70) to begin social isolation soon, and maintain it for as long as they can, or until we know more

Here are some links I have used that I have found valuable:

A good Reddit thread on the findings from China and what we know

Institute for disease modeling — some good cohort-based data. Very technical

A list of what to do to prepare, recommended by a doctor friend

Twitter thread on what is happening in Iran

Another Twitter thread on what to expect in the US over the next few months

Twitter thread from UW biology professor — you don’t need to monitor this hourly

Stratechery’s daily update (gated — ask me if you know me and you want it forwarded. Or just subscribe. It is worth it)

I will add links as I think they are worth sharing widely. Stay safe!

Edward

My newsletter covers marketing, comes out every Tuesday and is professionally edited— I use Medium for everything else, and no one edits my spelling mistakes here